Yield Growth Patterns of Food Commodities

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - Understanding global food production and productivity patterns is essential for addressing poverty, food insecurity, and climate change, with a focus on yield growth patterns across 144 crops covering 98% of global agricultural land and food output [2][7] - The analysis indicates that there has been no discernible slowdown in global yield growth over the past six decades, with an average annual yield increase of approximately 33 kilograms of wheat per hectare [2][44] - The findings suggest that observed deceleration in specific commodities or regions has been offset by gains in others, highlighting the importance of sustainable agricultural practices to ensure food security amid increasing global food demand [2][44] Summary by Sections Introduction - The global population is projected to reach 10 billion by mid-century, making agricultural productivity critical for food supply [7] - Concerns have arisen regarding yield stagnation, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, which could lead to food availability issues [7] Methods and Data - A calorific-based approach is introduced to analyze yield growth, converting crop production into calorific content for better comparison across various crops [9][15] - The study utilizes data from 144 crops from 1961 to 2021, accounting for 98% of global agricultural land [31] Results - Global crop production has nearly quadrupled on a calorific basis over the past six decades, with aggregate global yield rising from approximately 4,330 KCal/ha in 1961 to almost 11,000 KCal/ha in 2021, a 158% increase [34] - The Big-4 commodities (maize, wheat, rice, and soybeans) contributed significantly to yield growth, with their yields tripling during the same period [34] - Emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) contributed over 70% to global production growth, with significant yield advancements observed in regions like Southeast Asia and Latin America [34][37] Discussion and Conclusion - The report concludes that global aggregate crop yield has grown consistently at approximately 109 KCal/ha per year from 1961 to 2021, with no evidence of deceleration or acceleration [44] - Future challenges include meeting the expected increase in global food requirements due to population and income growth, necessitating strategic agricultural practices [44]