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名创优品:单季度毛利率创历史新高,四季度旺季有望实现业绩加速
09896MNSO(09896) Guoxin Securities·2024-12-04 00:24

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [4][14][22]. Core Views - The company achieved a record high gross margin of 44.9% in Q3, driven by an increase in high-margin overseas direct sales and improved product structure [10][12]. - Revenue growth is expected to accelerate in Q4, with an overall year-on-year increase of 25-30%, particularly in overseas markets projected to grow by 45-50% [7][8]. - The company is expanding its store network aggressively, with 135 new stores added in China and 183 new stores overseas in Q3 [8][10]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, the company reported revenue of 12.28 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.8%, and adjusted net profit of 1.93 billion, up 13.7% year-on-year [7][8]. - In Q3 alone, revenue was 4.523 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.3%, while adjusted net profit was 686 million, up 6.9% year-on-year [7][8]. - The company’s adjusted net profit margin for the first three quarters was 15.7%, slightly down from the previous year [7][8]. Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 2.755 billion, 3.330 billion, and 3.958 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19, 16, and 13 [14][18]. - The revenue projections for the next few years are 17.395 billion in 2024, 21.170 billion in 2025, and 25.235 billion in 2026, indicating a strong growth trajectory [18]. Market Positioning - The company is leveraging its strong channel capabilities and supply chain advantages to optimize its product structure through popular IP collaborations, which is expected to enhance gross margins [12][14]. - The acquisition of Yonghui Supermarket is progressing steadily, aiming to create a unique multi-brand matrix in the retail sector [12][14].