CNOOC(600938) 国信证券·2024-12-04 00:55Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1][3][17] Core Views - The company's long-term growth certainty is significant due to the successful commissioning of new domestic and international projects [3] - OPEC+ is expected to extend voluntary production cuts, potentially stabilizing oil prices [6][12] Project Summaries Brazil Mero 3 Project - Commissioned on October 31, 2024, adding 17,400 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) in equity production [3][4] - Located in the Santos Basin pre-salt area, 180 km from Rio de Janeiro, with water depths of 1,800-2,100 meters [4] - Utilizes FPSO + subsea production system, increasing Mero field's total crude oil production capacity to 590,000 barrels per day [4] - The company holds a 9.65% interest in the Mero field PSC [4] Canada Long Lake Northwest Project - Commissioned on November 6, 2024, expected to reach peak production of 8,200 boe/d in 2025 [3][4] - Located in Alberta, Canada, using SAGD production method with 8 well pairs [4] - The company holds 100% interest and is the operator [4] Huizhou 26-6 Oilfield Development Project - Commissioned on December 2, 2024, expected to reach peak production of 20,600 boe/d in 2027 [3][5] - Located in the Pearl River Mouth Basin with average water depth of 110 meters [5] - Features 19 development wells (2 oil wells, 17 gas wells) producing light crude oil and natural gas [5] - The company holds 100% interest and is the operator [5] Jinzhou 23-2 Oilfield Project - Commissioned on December 3, 2024, expected to reach peak production of 17,000 boe/d in 2027 [3][5] - Located in the northern Liaodong Bay of Bohai Sea with average water depth of 13 meters [5] - China's first offshore multi-layer heavy oil thermal recovery development project [5] - The company holds 100% interest and is the operator [5] Financial Projections - 2024-2026 net profit attributable to parent company forecast maintained at 149.8/156.4/163.3 billion yuan [6][17] - 2024-2026 EPS projected at 3.15/3.29/3.43 yuan [6][17] - A-share PE ratios for 2024-2026 estimated at 8.3x/8.0x/7.7x [6][17] - H-share PE ratios for 2024-2026 estimated at 5.5x/5.2x/4.9x [6][17] Industry Outlook - IEA raised 2024 oil demand growth forecast from 860,000 b/d to 920,000 b/d [6][12] - EIA raised 2024 oil demand growth forecast from 910,000 b/d to 990,000 b/d [6][12] - OPEC+ total production cuts reached 5.86 million b/d as of November 2024 [6][12] - Supply remains tight due to limited US shale oil production growth and strategic petroleum reserve replenishment [6][12] Valuation Comparison - CNOOC (600938 SH) trades at 8.3x/8.0x/7.7x 2024-2026E PE [18] - PetroChina (601857 SH) trades at 8.4x/7.9x 2024-2025E PE [18] - CNOOC (0883 HK) trades at 5.5x/5.2x 2024-2025E PE [18] - PetroChina (0857 HK) trades at 5.7x/5.4x 2024-2025E PE [18]