Tianfeng Securities·2024-12-04 01:10Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 88.05 HKD [1] Core Views - The company experienced pressure in Q2 2024 but rebounded in Q3, with expectations for continued performance throughout the year [1] - Q3 total revenue reached 42.9 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 24% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 35.3% [1] - Vehicle sales revenue was 41.3 billion RMB, up 22.9% year-on-year and 36.3% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to increased delivery volumes [1] - The overall gross margin was 21.5%, with vehicle gross margin at 20.9%, indicating potential for further cost reduction and scale effects in H2 [1] - The company delivered 152,831 vehicles in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 45.4%, and improved its market share in the 200,000 RMB and above new energy vehicle segment from 14.4% in Q2 to 17.3% in Q3 [1] - The company has made significant advancements in smart driving technology, which is expected to drive further order growth [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Q3 Performance - Q3 total revenue: 42.9 billion RMB, +24% YoY, +35.3% QoQ - Vehicle sales revenue: 41.3 billion RMB, +22.9% YoY, +36.3% QoQ - Other sales and service revenue: 1.6 billion RMB, +45.8% YoY, +14.1% QoQ [1] Profitability - Overall gross margin: 21.5% - Net profit: 2.8 billion RMB, consistent YoY, +156.2% QoQ - Non-GAAP net profit: 3.9 billion RMB, +11.1% YoY, +156.2% QoQ [1] Vehicle Sales - Q3 deliveries: 152,831 units, +45.4% YoY - Market share in 200,000 RMB and above segment: increased from 14.4% to 17.3% [1] Future Outlook - Q4 delivery guidance: 160,000 - 170,000 units, +21.4% - 29% YoY - Total revenue guidance: 43.2 billion - 45.9 billion RMB, +3.5% - 10% YoY [1] - Expected adjusted net profits for 2024/2025: 11.6 billion / 14.8 billion RMB [1]