金属行业12月月报：12月仍处需求淡季，关注国内重要会议

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Neutral" while the non-ferrous metals industry is rated as "Positive" [2][10]. Core Views - The steel industry faces a lack of support for steel prices due to seasonal factors and maintenance practices at steel mills, with a need to monitor domestic policies and significant meetings in December [4][25]. - In the copper sector, despite being a consumption off-season, demand may remain resilient due to policies encouraging the replacement of old consumer goods and a recent drop in copper prices [5][40]. - The aluminum sector is expected to experience downward pressure on prices due to the implementation of export tax rebate policies, leading to a slowdown in export rhythm [6][47]. - The lithium market is anticipated to see price fluctuations as downstream purchasing sentiment weakens towards the year's end [7][57]. - The cobalt market is expected to remain weak due to oversupply conditions, with a focus on inventory reduction as the year ends [8]. - Nickel prices are projected to fluctuate as Indonesia reviews compliance with environmental regulations, impacting production [9][71]. - The gold market is influenced by a strong dollar and rising interest rate expectations, with long-term factors favoring gold prices [10][56]. - The tin market is viewed positively due to tight supply conditions and demand driven by the recovery in the semiconductor industry [10][66]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Development - Steel: The PMI index for the steel industry was 50.6% in November, indicating expansion despite a 4.0 percentage point decrease. Steel prices are under pressure due to weak fundamentals [25][26]. - Copper: Domestic refined copper production in October was 1.116 million tons, a 1.93% decrease month-on-month [40]. - Aluminum: The comprehensive PMI for the aluminum processing industry was 47.3% in November, with a notable decrease in demand for various products [47][48]. - Lithium: Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices increased by 5.94% to 78,500 yuan/ton in November [57]. - Cobalt: The market is expected to remain weak with a focus on inventory reduction [8]. - Nickel: Prices are expected to fluctuate due to regulatory reviews in Indonesia [71]. - Rare Earths: Prices for various rare earth products have shown a downward trend [76]. 2. Market Review - From November 4 to December 2, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.62%, while the non-ferrous metals sector saw a decline of 3.00% [81].