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兴证建筑每周观点：24年专项债新增限额增加到9.9万亿，继续看好化债带来的大建筑央企投资机会
INDUSTRIAL SECURITIES·2024-12-04 03:10

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for major construction state-owned enterprises including China Railway, China State Construction, China Communications Construction, China Railway Construction, China Electric Power Construction, China National Chemical Corporation, China National Materials, China Steel International, and Honglu Steel Structure [1][2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of refinancing special bonds to replace hidden debts, with 25 regions disclosing over 1.5 trillion yuan for this purpose, indicating a potential improvement in the financial statements of major construction state-owned enterprises [2][3]. - The Ministry of Finance announced an increase in the local government debt limit for 2024 from 3.9 trillion yuan to 9.9 trillion yuan, with the total limit adjusted to 35.5 trillion yuan by the end of 2024 [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the expected benefits for major construction state-owned enterprises, particularly those with high accounts receivable from local governments or urban investment platforms, as the debt reduction efforts gain momentum [3][5]. Summary by Sections Important Events Tracking - On November 26, 2024, the Ministry of Finance announced an increase in the local government special debt limit to 9.9 trillion yuan [18]. - As of November 29, 2024, the total issuance of new special bonds for the year reached 39,821.1 billion yuan, exceeding the annual plan by 102.11% [29][30]. Market Performance Tracking - From November 25 to November 29, 2024, the construction engineering sector (SW) rose by 0.81%, while the overall A-share index increased by 2.15%, resulting in an excess return of -1.35 percentage points for the construction sector [20]. - The report notes that the construction engineering sector's PE (TTM) is 10.02, with a historical percentile of 18.43%, and a PB of 0.78, with a historical percentile of 4.17% [24]. Industry Data Tracking - As of November 29, 2024, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds for the year reached 39,821.1 billion yuan, with a significant portion allocated to municipal and industrial park infrastructure projects [30][35].