宏观视角：日元缘何逆势升值？

Economic Indicators - The Japanese yen has appreciated by 4.2% against the US dollar, reaching 149.9 yen/USD, while the euro and Korean won depreciated by 0.4% and 0.2% respectively during the same period[3] - Japan's core CPI for October was 2.3%, slightly above the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 2.2%, indicating positive inflation trends[5] - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in December, reflecting a shift towards monetary policy normalization[6] Market Dynamics - The US-Japan interest rate differential has narrowed by 30 basis points to 3.12% as of December 2, contributing to the yen's strength[4] - The US 10-year Treasury yield fell from 4.45% on November 13 to 4.20% by December 2, driven by signals of reduced fiscal expansion from newly nominated cabinet members[4] - The net short position in the yen has decreased, providing additional support for its appreciation[5] Future Outlook - Japan's economic growth is projected to rebound from 0.3% in 2024 to 1.1% in 2025, outperforming many developed countries[6] - The ongoing inflationary process in Japan suggests that the Bank of Japan will continue to pursue monetary policy normalization, which may support the yen and related assets[6] - The yen's safe-haven status may become more attractive if global trade risks increase, potentially benefiting the currency in times of market volatility[6] Risks - There are risks associated with Japan's growth momentum not meeting expectations and potential unexpected declines in inflation[7]