锂电池行业年度投资策略：业绩持续改善，关注四条主线

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the lithium battery industry [2][7]. Core Insights - The lithium battery sector is experiencing a short-term performance decline, with revenue and net profit showing negative growth in 2024, but a recovery is expected in 2025 [6][26]. - The report highlights the significant growth in global and domestic new energy vehicle sales, with expectations for continued growth driven by policy support and changing consumer preferences [5][26]. - The industry is characterized by a notable differentiation in performance across various segments, with specific focus areas identified for investment opportunities [7][26]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance and Market Review - The lithium battery sector's revenue reached 2.25 trillion yuan in 2023, marking a 6.65% increase from 2022, but saw a decline of 5.21% in the first three quarters of 2024 [100][101]. - Net profit for the sector in 2023 was 141.41 billion yuan, down 33.61% year-on-year, with a further decline of 26.56% in the first three quarters of 2024 [101][102]. - The performance of the sector has been impacted by a combination of increased production capacity and a slowdown in demand, leading to price pressures across the industry [100][106]. 2. New Energy Vehicle Sales Growth - Global sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 11.72 million units in the first nine months of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 24.05% [5][127]. - In China, new energy vehicle sales totaled 9.75 million units in the first ten months of 2024, reflecting a 34.85% increase compared to the previous year [5][131]. - The report notes that the market share of new energy vehicles in China is expected to reach approximately 50% by 2025 [5][26]. 3. Sector Performance Outlook - The report anticipates that the lithium battery sector will face continued pressure in 2024, with a recovery expected in 2025 as demand for power and energy storage batteries grows [6][26]. - The global installed capacity of power batteries reached 599.0 GWh in the first nine months of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.40% [6][30]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of key segments, particularly those with technological and scale advantages [7][26]. 4. Investment Rating and Key Themes - The report suggests focusing on four main investment themes: upstream raw material pricing pressures benefiting downstream battery manufacturers, the increasing share of lithium iron phosphate batteries, key materials with growing market share, and opportunities in solid-state battery advancements [7][26].