2025年度展望（六）之资产配置策略：顺势而为，见“风”使舵

Policy Impact - Market expectations for policies have already been reflected in current trading information, with uncertainty regarding the strength and timing of these policies[1] - The overall economic data shows initial signs of a turning point, but short-term doubts remain about the continuous upward trend of the fundamentals[1] Market Outlook - The market is expected to exhibit a fluctuating upward trend in 2025, with positive factors slightly outweighing negative ones[2] - The anticipated market bottom is likely to have been established in September 2024, with subsequent increases in trading volume expected to drive index levels higher[2] Profit Forecasts - A-shares' overall profit growth for 2025 is projected at 2.79% to 3%, while non-financial A-shares are expected to see a decline of -3.8% to -3.24% under various PPI scenarios[3] - The profit and price turning points are expected to occur in Q2 2025, with potential for significant improvement if conditions align favorably[3] Sector Analysis - Only four sectors—non-metallic mining, thermal supply, rail and shipping, and media—are expected to see simultaneous improvements in volume, price, and profit margins[4] - The media sector is highlighted for its potential to capture market share through low-cost niche consumption, while the shipping sector benefits from tight supply conditions and rising freight rates[4] Structural Breakthroughs - Key areas for profit recovery include upstream oil and petrochemicals, midstream lithium batteries and shipping containers, and downstream textiles, food and beverage, and certain pharmaceutical segments[5] - The focus on high-end manufacturing and domestic substitution in military and semiconductor sectors is emphasized as a significant opportunity[8]