有色金属行业2025年度投资策略报告：黄金或震荡上行，关注工业金属需求回暖

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [1]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry showed a mixed performance in the first three quarters of 2024, with precious metals and industrial metals recovering significantly, while energy metals are still bottoming out. Overall, the non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the market in the first half of the year but experienced a pullback in the third quarter [5]. - Gold prices are expected to trend upwards due to the long-term expansion of U.S. debt and weakening dollar credit, despite short-term fluctuations influenced by speculative funds and central bank purchases [5]. - Copper supply is expected to face uncertainties, with demand recovery being crucial in 2025. The supply of copper concentrate is projected to grow, but the actual increase may fall short of expectations due to upstream supply constraints [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance Review - In the first three quarters of 2024, the non-ferrous metals industry achieved revenues of 2.57 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.95%, and a net profit of 106.3 billion yuan, up 0.04% year-on-year [14]. - Precious metals and industrial metals showed significant recovery, with precious metals' revenue and net profit increasing by 25.57% and 46.14% respectively [17]. Gold Market Analysis - The traditional negative correlation between gold prices and U.S. Treasury yields has weakened, with gold prices expected to remain stable due to rising U.S. debt levels and potential inflation [29][32]. - The report anticipates that gold prices will experience upward fluctuations in 2025, supported by strong fundamentals and geopolitical events [51]. Copper Market Analysis - The copper market is facing supply challenges due to declining ore grades and increased mining costs, with global copper mine production growth expected to slow down in 2024 [60][71]. - Demand for copper is projected to recover in 2025, driven by fiscal policies in major economies and growth in new energy sectors [93]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Zijin Mining (601899.SH), Shandong Gold (600547.SH), and Zhongjin Gold (600489.SH) for gold investments, and for copper, companies like Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH), and Western Mining (601168.SH) are recommended [5].