互联网行业2024年12月投资策略:港股互联网估值回落,重回高胜率布局区间
Guoxin Securities·2024-12-04 05:50

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the internet industry [1][4]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong internet sector has seen a valuation decline, returning to a high-probability investment zone. The Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 3.2% in November, while the Nasdaq Internet Index rose by 9.2%. Key stocks such as Kingsoft, NetEase, and Kingdee International outperformed the Hang Seng Technology Index with monthly gains of 16.7%, 9.1%, and 7.7% respectively [1][20][18]. - The report highlights the resilience of internet giants, with Tencent's advertising and gaming businesses showing growth, and Meituan's profitability improving in its food delivery and local services [1][4]. - The overall strategy of internet giants has shifted towards high-quality development, which is expected to continue through 2025, as the industry transitions from a phase of strict regulation to a more standardized development [1][4]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Hang Seng Technology Index decreased by 3.2% in November, while the Nasdaq Internet Index increased by 9.2% [20]. - Tencent, NetEase, and Kingdee International were the top performers in Hong Kong, with gains of 16.7%, 9.1%, and 7.7% respectively [18]. AI Developments - OpenAI launched a desktop version of ChatGPT for Windows, enhancing user interaction capabilities [31]. - Google introduced the Gemini app for iOS, focusing on educational tools [33]. - Microsoft has developed an AI Agent ecosystem, significantly expanding its AI capabilities across its software suite [39]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes the approval of 112 domestic game titles in November, including Tencent's key game "Victory Goddess: New Hope" [63]. - In the fintech sector, the reserve funds of payment institutions remained stable year-on-year in October, totaling 23,664 billion yuan [64]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests increasing exposure to the Hong Kong internet sector, as current valuations for Tencent, Meituan, and Alibaba have returned to favorable levels, with adjusted profit multiples of 16x, 21x, and 10x respectively for 2024 [1][4].