化工行业周报：2024年11月第4周

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Views - The market remains cautious towards the petrochemical industry due to unclear oil price expectations following Trump's election. The shift in market sentiment has led to a slight decrease in risk appetite, favoring leading companies with strong fundamentals and low correlation to oil prices. The increasing instability in global situations has highlighted the importance of food security, making the demand in the agriculture and food supply chain more rigid. The report anticipates sustained prosperity and upward elasticity from supply-side optimization [20][6] Summary by Sections Oil and Chemical Product Information - As of November 29, Brent oil price decreased by 3.0% to $72.94 per barrel. Early in the week, oil prices were pressured by easing Middle East tensions and a stronger dollar, but rebounded mid-week on expectations that OPEC+ would continue to extend production cuts. As of November 22, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories stood at 428.4 million barrels, a weekly decrease of 1.8 million barrels [21][3] Price Changes - Among the 188 monitored chemical products, the top three price increases this week were Nicotinamide (up 9.9%), Formic Acid (up 5.4%), and Natural Rubber (up 3.8%). The top three price decreases were Ammonium Nitrate - International (down 7.3%), Diethanolamine (down 6.9%), and C9 Cracking (down 3.6%). Monthly, the top three price increases were Liquid Chlorine (up 39.6%), Natural Gas (up 27.1%), and Vitamin B1 (up 16.9%) [4][22] Price Spread Changes - This week, the top three products with the largest spread increases were Butyl Acrylate (up 495.2%), Lithium Hexafluorophosphate (up 49.5%), and Oil Head Propylene (up 25.7%). The largest decreases were seen in Hydrogen Peroxide (down 100.0%), Oil Head Ethylene Glycol (down 31.1%), and Polypropylene (down 17.9%). Monthly, the top three spread increases were MTO (up 111.8%), Lithium Hexafluorophosphate (up 63.5%), and Ethylene (up 44.4%) [5][27] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends Wanhua Chemical (600309, Buy) due to recent profit improvements in its core product MDI and upcoming production from petrochemical and new material projects. It also recommends Huamao Technology (603181, Buy) as a leading special polyether company that has re-entered a growth phase. Jinhe Industrial (002597, Buy) is recommended for its leading products Maltol and Sucralose, which are showing signs of marginal improvement. Yuntianhua (600096, Not Rated) is suggested for attention as a leading company in the domestic phosphate chemical industry with sustainable phosphate ore prosperity and potential for increased dividends [6][20]