国君纺服|风物长宜放眼量

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for leading manufacturers with strong core customer performance and potential market share gains, anticipating a recovery in orders starting from 2025H1 [1]. Core Insights - The industry is expected to enter a replenishment cycle in H2 2024, with early signs of improvement in export data. Historical trends indicate that manufacturers' orders improve ahead of downstream replenishment [1]. - The report highlights that the apparel wholesale and retail sector in the U.S. is projected to experience low single-digit growth from January to September 2024, with consistent trends in export data [1]. Summary by Sections Industry Level - A replenishment cycle is anticipated to begin in H2 2024, with overseas industry-wide replenishment expected to last until the end of Q1 2025. Vietnam's apparel and footwear export growth turned positive in March 2024, with replenishment benefits expected to conclude by Q3 2024 [1]. Individual Company Level - Nike: Sales were weak in FY2025Q1, leading to a healthy inventory turnover ratio. Revenue decline is expected to reverse by FY2026Q1, with orders improving by Q4 2025 [2]. - Adidas: The company is experiencing steady revenue growth, with a healthy inventory turnover ratio. Future order growth is closely tied to brand sales performance [2]. - Deckers: Currently in an active replenishment phase, expected to conclude by the end of Q1 2025. Order growth will depend on Deckers' sales performance [2]. - Uniqlo: Operating in a stable phase, with manufacturer orders closely linked to end sales. Projected revenue growth of 9.5% year-on-year for FY2025 [2]. Preferred Manufacturers - The report recommends selecting leading manufacturers with strong beta from major clients and strong alpha characteristics. Key characteristics include: - Core Customer Recovery: Nike is expected to recover from its operational low by H1 2025, with revenue growth projections of 14% under optimistic scenarios [3]. - Market Share Growth: Companies like Huayi Group and Weixing Co. are projected to have a CAGR of 16% from 2024 to 2027 [3]. - Strong Core Customer Performance: Adidas is currently leading in industry performance, with expected revenue growth for its main supplier, Yuanyuan Group, ranging from 8% to 12% in 2025 under various scenarios [3].