年度策略报告姊妹篇：2025年金属行业风险排雷手册

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the re-evaluation of strategic minerals and the identification of cyclical investment opportunities [16][22] - The report highlights the impact of "de-globalization" and trade friction risks on the value of strategic resources, suggesting that these factors will enhance the strategic attributes of key minerals [16][22] - The anticipated monetary and fiscal policy easing in China and the U.S. in 2025 is expected to create a favorable environment for cyclical metal prices [18][24] Summary by Sections Annual Strategy - The annual strategy focuses on the re-evaluation of strategic minerals and capitalizing on cyclical opportunities, driven by global supply chain shifts and geopolitical tensions [16][22] - The report identifies key strategic minerals in China, including rare earths, antimony, and tungsten, with significant domestic production and reserves [20] - Recommended stocks include Northern Rare Earth, Jinchuan Group, and Zijin Mining, among others, based on their strategic resource attributes [20][38] Key Assumptions - The re-evaluation of strategic minerals is predicated on the intensification of "de-globalization" and trade friction risks, which could reshape the supply chain dynamics [22][24] - The cyclical investment thesis relies on the expectation of synchronized monetary easing in China and the U.S., which would benefit upstream industrial metal prices [24] Major Weaknesses - The potential for a slowdown in the re-evaluation of strategic minerals if global political and economic conditions stabilize, reducing trade friction [26] - The cyclical investment strategy may face challenges if monetary easing does not meet expectations, leading to pressure on industrial metal prices [26]