2025年度策略系列报告“碧海潮生，日出东方”：在混沌中寻找秩序

Group 1 - The report anticipates a gradual recovery of the domestic economy in 2025, driven by policy support, with certain industries likely to complete supply-side adjustments and emerge from deflation [3] - The U.S. economy is expected to perform better than Europe, with a weak upward trend in the inventory cycle, although uncertainties such as tariff impacts and geopolitical risks remain [3][4] - The report aims to identify structural opportunities in 2025, focusing on debt reduction, restructuring, certainty in growth, and supply-side improvements [3] Group 2 - In the U.S., the arrival of the Trump 2.0 era is expected to increase uncertainties in trade, fiscal, and monetary policies, potentially escalating global trade tensions and affecting exports and inflation levels [4] - The S&P 500 earnings growth is projected to rise by 13.6% year-on-year in 2025, supported by tax cuts and deregulation policies from the Trump administration [4] - The probability of a severe economic slowdown globally in 2025 is considered low, with a decreasing likelihood of a recession in the U.S. [4] Group 3 - Japan is unlikely to continue raising interest rates in 2025 due to structural issues such as an aging population and weak domestic demand, despite some short-term inflationary pressures [5] - The Bank of Japan is expected to take a cautious approach to monetary policy, influenced by uncertainties stemming from U.S. policies and trade tariffs [5] Group 4 - The Eurozone's economic growth in 2025 may be weaker than expected due to geopolitical risks and trade friction, with the GDP growth rate for Q3 2024 projected at 1.5% [5]