2025年度策略系列报告“碧海潮生，日出东方”：政策“踏浪”之寻找重组的七条线索

Core Viewpoints - The domestic economy is expected to gradually recover in 2025, driven by policy support, with some industries potentially completing supply-side adjustments and exiting deflation [1] - Overseas, the US economy is expected to outperform Europe, with a weak upward inventory cycle, but uncertainties such as potential tariff impacts and Japan's interest rate hikes remain [1] - The report focuses on four key areas: debt resolution, restructuring, certain growth opportunities, and supply-side improvements, with a particular emphasis on restructuring [1] M&A and Restructuring Trends - M&A and restructuring activities have become more active, with a noticeable profit effect, especially as IPO activities slow down [2] - There is a seesaw effect between M&A and IPOs, with M&A becoming a viable alternative for companies when IPO exits are delayed [2] - Since August 2023, regulatory policies have tightened IPOs, leading to increased support for M&A and restructuring in 2024 [2] - The number of companies announcing restructuring plans has risen since July 2024, with the restructuring index significantly outperforming the Wind All-A Index [2] Policy Support for M&A and Restructuring - In 2024, policies have actively supported M&A and restructuring, particularly through documents like the new "National Nine Articles" in April, the "Tech Eight Articles" in June, and the "M&A Six Articles" in September [3] - These policies aim to improve review efficiency, diversify payment methods, increase valuation tolerance, and support cross-industry M&A, especially for unprofitable assets [3] - M&A and restructuring are seen as effective tools for market value management, helping companies transition to new productive forces and improve industrial concentration [3] Seven Investment Clues for Restructuring 1. Asset Injection within the Same Controlling Entity: Companies that have halted or terminated IPOs may inject assets into listed companies under the same controlling entity [3] 2. Previously Failed M&A Attempts: Companies that failed in previous M&A attempts may restart restructuring efforts under current supportive policies [4] 3. Change in Controlling Shareholder: A change in controlling shareholder may lead to new asset injections or strategic realignments [4] 4. Market Value Management for Long-Term Undervalued Companies: Companies with long-term undervaluation may use restructuring to improve quality and valuation [6] 5. Shell Resource Value: In a tight IPO environment, companies with low market capitalization and clean balance sheets may serve as shell resources for reverse takeovers [6] 6. Market Share Expansion by Industry Leaders: Leading companies with strong cash positions but weak profitability may use M&A to expand market share [7] 7. Local State-Owned Enterprises: Local state-owned enterprises, supported by regional policies, may actively engage in M&A to enhance market value and industrial efficiency [7] Regional Policy Support - Regions like Xinjiang, Nanjing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have introduced policies to encourage M&A and restructuring among local state-owned enterprises [65] - These policies aim to improve market value management, enhance industrial concentration, and promote technological innovation [65]