银行行业2025年度投资策略：资产质量夯实之年，关注风险预期改善与复苏主线

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the banking industry in China [4] Core Insights - Fiscal policy remains crucial, with accelerated debt resolution expected to significantly impact the banking sector's fundamentals in 2025. A large-scale debt resolution plan has been implemented, which is anticipated to enhance bank operations [2][20] - Loan growth is expected to stabilize with a slight decline, while social financing growth is projected to rebound. The estimated loan growth for 2025 is between 7.1% and 7.6% [2][28] - The impact on bank net interest margins (NIM) is manageable, with a projected decline of 10-12 basis points in 2025. The concentration of high-interest deposits maturing is expected to provide some relief [2][55] - Asset quality is anticipated to improve significantly, driven by policy support, particularly in real estate and local government investment projects [2][43] Summary by Sections 1. Fiscal Policy and Debt Resolution - The report emphasizes the importance of fiscal and monetary policies, predicting a continuation of a positive stance in 2025. The large-scale debt resolution plan, amounting to 12 trillion yuan, is expected to have a profound impact on bank operations [20][21] - The combination of existing debt resolution and increased fiscal deficits is likely to lead to a slight decline in loan growth, with social financing growth expected to recover [22][28] 2. Interest Margin and Repricing Effects - The report forecasts a decline in bank NIM by 10-12 basis points in 2025, with the potential for improvement due to the maturing of high-interest deposits [50][55] - The impact of debt resolution on NIM is estimated to be around 6-7 basis points, with the overall effect being manageable [37][40] 3. Non-Interest Income Contribution - Non-interest income is expected to remain stable, with a slight recovery in fee income anticipated due to a low base and a rebound in the stock market [3][16] 4. Asset Quality Outlook - The report indicates that asset quality is likely to remain stable, with a focus on consumer loans and credit card quality potentially improving. The overall asset quality is expected to benefit from the resolution of local government debts [2][43][46] 5. Capital and Refinancing Issues - The implementation of new capital regulations is expected to improve the capital adequacy ratios of banks, with some banks showing strong performance potential [2][24] - The report discusses the implications of capital injections from large banks, estimating a dilution effect on earnings per share (EPS) and return on equity (ROE) to be relatively limited [2][41]