行业比较专刊：下游消费延续复苏，中游行业景气回升

Core Insights - Overall, downstream consumption continues to recover, while the midstream industry shows signs of improvement, and upstream industries exhibit varying degrees of performance [1] - Upstream industry performance is mixed, with glass and cement prices rising sharply, while most tracked chemical product prices have shown recovery. Copper and aluminum futures prices have slightly declined, and the rare earth price index has turned down, but lithium carbonate prices have rebounded after a prolonged decline [1][12] - The midstream industry is mostly experiencing a recovery in sentiment, driven by a major cycle in electronics, with global and Asian semiconductor sales maintaining high growth. In transportation, both express delivery revenue and volume have increased year-on-year [1][12] - Downstream consumption continues to show recovery, supported by a series of consumption stimulus policies, with retail sales showing year-on-year growth. The home appliance and automotive sectors have benefited directly from these policies, with notable increases in sales [1][12] Downstream Industry Overview - Home appliance sales have accelerated, with retail sales in October increasing by 12.6% year-on-year, marking the fastest growth since early 2022. Air conditioner sales saw a year-on-year increase of 37.9% [18][19] - The retail sector is recovering, with total retail sales in October growing by 4.8% year-on-year, and online retail sales also turning positive [19][21] - In the food and beverage sector, dairy product prices continue to decline, with average prices for milk powder and fresh milk decreasing in November [24][26] - Agricultural prices showed slight fluctuations, with chicken prices stable and pork prices declining by 3.7% [29][30] - The automotive sector saw a significant recovery, with passenger car sales in October reaching 2.755 million units, a year-on-year increase of 10.7% [37][40] - Real estate indicators are mixed, with sales showing a continued recovery while development investment declines [45][46] Midstream Industry Overview - Semiconductor sales are experiencing high growth, with global semiconductor sales reaching $55.32 billion in September, a year-on-year increase of 23.2% [51] - The transportation sector shows a mixed trend, with express delivery revenue and volume increasing significantly in October [55][57] - In the machinery sector, excavator sales increased by 15.1% year-on-year in October, while heavy truck sales saw a reduced decline [60][64] - The battery sector maintains high growth, with battery production and installation volumes increasing by 46.3% and 51% year-on-year, respectively [66] Upstream Industry Overview - The construction materials sector is seeing rising prices for glass and cement, while chemical product prices are mostly recovering [12][68] - In the metals sector, copper and aluminum futures prices have declined, while lithium carbonate prices have rebounded [12][68] - Oil prices remain low, with WTI crude oil inventory slightly increasing [12][68]