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Algeria Economic Update, Fall 2024
世界银行·2024-12-04 23:03

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - Economic growth in Algeria remained robust, with GDP growth at 3.9% year-on-year in H1-2024, supported by non-extractive sectors and dynamic investment [17][19] - Non-hydrocarbon exports have significant growth potential, having tripled since 2017 to reach 2.0% of GDP or US5.1billionin2023,althoughtheystillrepresentasmallfractionoftotalexports[20][34]−Inflationdeceleratedto4.3 5.1 billion in 2023, although they still represent a small fraction of total exports [20][34] - Inflation decelerated to 4.3% in the first nine months of 2024, down from 9.3% in 2022 and 2023, due to stabilization in fresh food prices and moderated import prices [17][19] Summary by Sections Chapter 1: Recent Economic Developments - Non-extractive GDP grew by 3.9% year-on-year in H1-2024, driven by strong investment growth and robust private consumption [38] - The current account reached balance in H1-2024, following a surplus of 2.3% of GDP in 2023, as export prices and volumes declined while import volumes remained high [17][19] - Inflation fell significantly in H1-2024, attributed to stabilized fresh food prices and a stable exchange rate [17][19] Chapter 2: Outlook and Risks - Growth is expected to slow moderately in 2024, with GDP projected to grow at 3.1%, while external and fiscal deficits are anticipated to widen [19][20] - Public debt is projected to reach 49.5% of GDP by the end of 2024, driven by declining hydrocarbon revenues and increased public spending [19][20] - A recovery in hydrocarbon output is expected to support growth rebound in 2025, although faster import growth may lead to a current account deficit [19][20] Chapter 3: Towards a Holistic Framework to Support Exports - Algeria's non-hydrocarbon export potential is significant, with a goal to export US 29 billion in non-hydrocarbon products by 2030 [20][34] - Productivity growth and conducive macroeconomic policies are essential for enhancing export competitiveness [20][34] - Adapting to global decarbonization efforts is crucial, as over 80% of Algeria's non-hydrocarbon exports to Europe are concentrated in carbon-intensive products [20][34]