天风证券：晨会集萃-20241205

Group 1: Macro Insights - The M1 monetary supply adjustment has led to a narrowing of year-on-year fluctuations, with the impact of individual items on M1 decreasing as the scope of coverage expands [1] - The market is currently in a "strong expectation, weak reality" phase, suggesting a need for caution in trading strategies, particularly in the context of policy-driven and thematic market rotations [1][2] Group 2: Fixed Income Analysis - The RMB exchange rate has shown upward movement, with the central bank appearing to actively manage depreciation pressures, indicating a potential for further interest rate cuts in the future [2][3] - The report anticipates that the RMB may fluctuate around 7.3 in 2025, with domestic interest rates expected to continue declining [2][3] Group 3: Industry Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors that are likely to experience a turnaround, such as real estate and consumer goods, while also highlighting the technology sector, particularly artificial intelligence and high-end equipment [1][2] - The investment strategy suggests maintaining a 70% allocation in absolute return products primarily composed of stocks from the Wind All A index [1] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - BYD's November sales reached 507,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 67.9%, with a cumulative sales figure of 3.757 million vehicles for the first 11 months of 2024, reflecting a 40% increase [6][25] - China Kapei reported a revenue of 1.693 billion RMB for FY24, an 11.6% increase, with a net profit of 830 million RMB, up 5.1% [7][27] - Ideal Auto's Q3 revenue was 42.9 billion RMB, a 24% year-on-year increase, with a significant rise in vehicle deliveries contributing to improved profitability [32][34]