宏观大类日报：“小非农”不及预期 美劳动力市场放缓

Market Analysis - The US ADP report indicated an increase of 146,000 private sector jobs in November, falling short of the expected 150,000, suggesting a slowdown in the labor market[2] - The Eurozone's October PPI decreased by 3.2% year-on-year, slightly better than the expected 3.3% decline, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures[9] - China's November Caixin Services PMI recorded at 51.5, showing a slight decrease of 0.5 percentage points from October, but still indicating expansion in the services sector[9] Economic Policies - The Trump administration plans to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, and an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods, reflecting a continuation of protectionist policies[2] - China's recent debt management policies aim to reduce hidden debts from 14.3 trillion yuan to 2.3 trillion yuan by 2028, with a total debt limit of 6 trillion yuan set for 2024-2026[2] Commodity Insights - The black metal sector is expected to be supported by policy sentiment, while the industrial products sector's performance hinges on successful fiscal expansion in China[5] - Oil prices are projected to remain under pressure due to increased OPEC production and accelerated energy transition, leading to potential oversupply in the market[5] Investment Strategies - Recommendations include buying gold and black metals on dips, while maintaining a neutral stance on other commodities[2] - Stock index futures are suggested for hedging purposes, indicating a cautious approach to market volatility[2] Risks - Geopolitical risks, particularly in the energy sector, pose upward pressure on prices, while global economic downturns could negatively impact risk assets[6]