煤炭与消费用燃料专题报告：十年期国债利率破2%之后，如何看煤炭后续空间？

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [9]. Core Insights - The ten-year government bond yield fell below 2% on December 2, 2024, closing at 1.98%, which has drawn market attention to dividend stocks [5][6]. - The report suggests that while resource stocks may still be under observation, dividend stocks are expected to perform better in the current low-interest-rate environment, providing a more stable investment opportunity [6][7]. - The forecast for coal prices in 2025 indicates a narrowing decline, with expected prices stabilizing around 800-830 yuan per ton, which is a smaller year-on-year decrease compared to 2024 [6][7]. - The demand for thermal coal is anticipated to improve due to an expanded heating range, providing a stable "safe haven" for coal investments despite recent price weaknesses [7]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The report discusses the implications of the ten-year government bond yield dropping below 2% and the weak performance of coal equities in October and November 2024 [20][22]. Estimating Future Coal Equity Space - The report provides calculations for the future dividend yield space of coal equities based on 2025 profit forecasts and the lowest dividend yield levels from 2023-2024 [25][27]. - It estimates that if the ten-year government bond yield drops to 2.0%, the maximum dividend yield differences for Shaanxi Coal, China Shenhua, and China Coal Energy would be 0.7%, 0.5%, and 0.2% respectively [27]. Investment Views & Strategies - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on coal leaders with stable earnings and high dividend yields, such as Shaanxi Coal, China Shenhua, and China Coal Energy, as well as companies exploring new growth avenues [7][8].