人民币结售汇系列（二）：跨年结汇压力或低于季节性

Group 1: Exchange Rate Trends - The average exchange rate for export enterprises in 2024 is projected to decline to 61.64%, down from previous years, reflecting concerns over global trade uncertainties and potential tightening of trade policies under Trump[2]. - The accumulated waiting for settlement funds from export enterprises is estimated to be around $800 billion in 2024, an increase from $450 billion in 2023, indicating a trend of postponing settlements to manage risks[44]. - If Trump implements similar tariff policies as in 2018, the exchange rate may drop below 60% in late 2024 to early 2025, followed by a potential spike above 70% after policy announcements[45]. Group 2: Market Behavior and Strategies - Companies are currently delaying settlements to take advantage of interest rate differentials, especially in a strong dollar environment, which may suppress the year-end settlement peak[2]. - The waiting for settlement funds has been overestimated, with actual demand being lower due to increased cross-border payments in RMB and other expenditures by export enterprises[2]. - Historical data shows that during periods of policy uncertainty, companies tend to retain foreign exchange to mitigate potential impacts, leading to lower settlement rates[38]. Group 3: Risks and Economic Factors - Geopolitical risks, unexpected global economic downturns, and fluctuations in U.S.-China relations pose significant risks to the exchange rate and settlement behaviors[4]. - The current low interest rate environment has led to a decrease in companies' willingness to settle, resulting in a narrowing of actual waiting for settlement funds[21]. - The anticipated strong dollar due to the upcoming U.S. presidential election may lead companies to adopt a cautious approach, further delaying settlements[14].