房地产：特朗普1.0时期下的地产复盘与2.0时期展望

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate sector [6]. Core Insights - The real estate industry experienced a tightening policy cycle during Trump's first term (2016-2020), despite expectations for a loosening cycle due to export constraints [2][13]. - The real estate chain continues to contribute positively to the economy even under strict policy controls, with a shift towards a high turnover model among developers to cope with liquidity pressures [3][44]. - The upcoming Trump 2.0 era is expected to accelerate trade policies, potentially impacting the real estate sector further [4][55]. - The current downturn in the real estate market is negatively affecting livelihoods and dragging down economic performance, necessitating a loosening of supply and demand policies [5][49]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Trump's First Term and Domestic Real Estate Regulation - Trump's first term coincided with a tightening policy cycle in the real estate sector, initiated by trade sanctions against China in 2018 [2][13]. - Despite the tightening, the real estate chain has shown resilience, contributing positively to the economy through increased demand for upstream industries and stimulating downstream consumption [3][44]. Section 2: New Cycle and Unconventional Recovery Path - The recent election results indicate a reduced resistance to Trump's policies, which may lead to quicker implementation of trade measures affecting the real estate sector [4][55]. - The current real estate downturn has resulted in negative contributions to GDP, with a need for policy adjustments to stimulate recovery [5][49]. - The necessity for counter-cyclical policy adjustments is highlighted, with expectations for monetary and fiscal policy easing to support the sector [5][49]. Section 3: Economic Contributions and Challenges - The real estate sector's contribution to GDP has been significant, averaging a 10% contribution rate from 2016 to 2020, despite the challenges posed by regulatory measures [46][49]. - The high turnover model adopted by developers has led to revenue growth, although net profits have been squeezed, benefiting upstream and downstream industries [44][46].