东吴证券：晨会纪要-20241205

Macro Strategy - The report suggests that the market has already reflected some policy expectations, with a confirmed policy direction but unclear timing and intensity [1][9] - It anticipates a "wind" effect in the market, with a preference for high-dividend and domestically substituted technology industries in the first half of 2025, while a shift towards traditional large-cap growth may occur in the second half if economic indicators improve [1][9] - The overall market trend for 2025 is expected to be upward, with a potential market bottom identified in September 2024, leading to a gradual increase in trading volume [1][9] Fixed Income Strategy - The report indicates a transition to a "bull market for both stocks and bonds" in the first half of 2025, driven by a "wide monetary + wide credit" environment [2][14] - It highlights that the bond yield for 10-year government bonds is expected to fluctuate between 1.8% and 2.4% throughout 2025 [2][14] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring credit conditions and suggests a focus on high-rated bonds due to limited spread compression in lower-rated municipal bonds [5][16] Company Analysis: Shanxi Fenjiu - Shanxi Fenjiu is focusing on consolidating its national distribution channels and innovating marketing strategies, with a notable product launch of the "青花汾酒 26·复兴版" priced at 600 yuan [6][19] - The company aims for a stable growth period from 2025 to 2026, with plans to enhance brand value through cultural innovation and experience centers [6][19] - Profit forecasts for 2024 to 2026 have been adjusted to 12.2 billion, 13.68 billion, and 15.79 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17%, 12%, and 15% [6][19]