黄金专题报告：一叶知秋看资产配置系列5-资源股的位置：估值重归低点，关注左侧布局

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [8]. Core Insights - In the fourth quarter, the A-share market experienced a systemic reversal, with previously strong resource stocks significantly underperforming. This trend has become more pronounced recently, as resource stocks not only failed to rebound but also accelerated their divergence from the market [5][18]. - The report suggests that resource stocks are currently in a phase where they can provide defensive positions, but aggressive drivers for growth are still awaited. The undervaluation of these stocks indicates a more optimistic outlook, especially at the year-end transition point, recommending a gradual left-side layout [5][6]. Summary by Sections Strong Market vs Weak Resources: Dual Pressure - The fourth quarter saw a systemic reversal in the A-share market, with resource stocks underperforming significantly. This trend is attributed to macroeconomic variables reversing from the previous half of the year, with marginal pressures stemming from weakening external demand and adjustments in liquidity [5][20][22]. Why Worth Considering? Valuation Cost-Effectiveness at Two-Year Cycle Low - Current valuations of resource stocks are at a two-year low across multiple dimensions: 1. Macro dimension: Key indicators such as the dollar and interest rates have reached the upper bounds of a two-year oscillation range, suggesting that the current weaker economic environment may not sustain high interest rates [26]. 2. Industry dimension: Prices of various resource products, excluding precious metals, have fallen below 30% of their past two-year levels, indicating an improved risk-reward ratio for long positions [28]. 3. Company dimension: Leading resource companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum have seen their valuations return to cyclical lows, with Zijin Mining's 2024/2026 valuations at approximately 13.0/9.6 times [31][32]. Why Still on the Left Side? Price Drivers Insufficient, Awaiting Testing and Catalysts - The report notes that low valuations do not necessarily trigger market rallies. The past two years have shown that resource stock rallies often depend on liquidity and seasonal demand expectations. The current situation suggests that resource stocks remain on the left side, with market movements not expected to be immediate [39][40]. Not Pessimistic About Resource Stocks: High Absolute Return Risk-Reward Ratio, Relative Returns Awaiting Drivers - The report concludes that resource stocks are in a phase where they can provide defensive positions, but aggressive growth drivers are still needed. The current low valuations suggest a positive outlook, especially as the year transitions. The report recommends focusing on core resource stocks in copper, gold, aluminum, silver, and nickel for left-side layout opportunities [43].