汽车行业2025年投资策略：走出“通缩”

Investment Rating - The report rates the automotive industry as "Buy" for 2025, maintaining the previous rating of "Buy" [7]. Core Insights - The report suggests that under the continued implementation of the vehicle replacement policy, the domestic passenger car terminal sales are expected to grow by approximately 3% year-on-year in 2025, with wholesale sales projected to increase by about 8% [7][58]. - The report highlights that the export performance of Chinese brands remains strong, with a forecasted growth rate of 15% for passenger car exports in 2025 [70]. - The penetration of high-level intelligent driving vehicles is entering a more affordable price range, with the penetration rate increasing from 1.6% in 2023 to 5.4% in 2024, indicating an approaching demand inflection point [7][70]. Summary by Sections Passenger Cars - Total Sales: The report anticipates a slight positive growth in terminal sales for passenger cars in 2025, supported by the vehicle replacement policy and a favorable inventory situation [53][65]. - Structure: The continued export demand for Chinese brands, accelerated high-end product development, and the expansion of the broad SUV market are expected to help passenger cars emerge from a deflationary phase [53][70]. - Competitive Landscape: The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring market space expansion and the competitive dynamics among key models such as BYD's Qin PLUS and Li Auto's L6 [54][70]. - Complete Vehicles: Investment in complete vehicles is characterized by cyclical trends, and identifying potential winners in the next phase will become clearer [7][70]. - Components: The report advises continued attention to component investment opportunities, considering penetration rates and average selling prices [7][70]. Commercial Vehicles - The report indicates that domestic sales of heavy trucks are expected to stabilize after a recent rebound from a cyclical low, with exports projected to maintain good growth [7][70]. Intelligent Driving - The report notes that high-level intelligent driving vehicles are entering a price range below 200,000 yuan, with a significant increase in penetration rates expected [7][70]. Investment Recommendations - The report provides a "shelf-style" investment suggestion, highlighting various stocks within the passenger car chain, including Geely, BYD, and Li Auto, among others [7][70].