证券行业2025年年度策略：迎接困境反转的贝塔效应

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the securities industry, with key companies such as CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, and Hong Kong Exchanges receiving "Overweight" or "Buy" ratings [2] Core Views - The securities industry experienced a dual boost in profitability and stock prices in 2024, with the Shenwan Securities II Index rising 35% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 by 20.9 percentage points [4] - Regulatory policies in 2024 focused on counter-cyclical adjustments, capital market supply-side structural reforms, and improving the quality of listed companies [4] - The report expects a shift in capital allocation towards equities, driving an increase in market trading activity and benefiting brokerage, investment banking, and asset management businesses [4] - The industry is expected to see a wave of mergers and acquisitions, with stock swaps being a more effective way to expand balance sheets compared to cash acquisitions [4] 2024 Review - The securities sector rebounded in 2024, with A-share and H-share markets both recovering from their lows [14] - In the A-share market, the securities sector outperformed the CSI 300 by 20.9 percentage points but underperformed the insurance sector by 1 percentage point [15] - The H-share market saw a significant improvement in both primary and secondary market activity, with Q3 2024 IPO fundraising reaching HKD 42.2 billion, triple the amount raised in H1 2024 [17][19] - Profitability among securities firms diverged, with larger firms showing more stable performance while smaller firms benefited from higher equity positions [25] Policy Environment - Regulatory policies in 2024 emphasized counter-cyclical adjustments, including tightening rules on short-selling and controlling IPO pace to support market stability [30] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) introduced measures to restrict short-selling, including suspending new securities lending and tightening rules on stock lending [31] - The CSRC also encouraged mergers and acquisitions as a way to facilitate capital market exits and improve the quality of listed companies [37] Industry Outlook - The report expects a recovery in brokerage business driven by increased market trading activity, with daily average trading volume reaching a record high of RMB 2 trillion in October 2024 [51] - Investment banking is expected to recover in 2025, with mergers and acquisitions becoming a key driver of growth [59] - Asset management is likely to shift towards passive products, with ETFs continuing to grow but offering limited profit margins [61] - Margin financing and securities lending businesses are expected to benefit from rising market risk appetite, with margin financing balances exceeding RMB 1.7 trillion by October 2024 [64] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on three investment themes: companies with short-term earnings elasticity, firms with valuation expansion potential, and those with long-term profit growth capabilities [4] - Key recommended companies include Orient Securities, Huatai Securities, CITIC Securities, and Hong Kong Exchanges [4]