汽车行业关税专题：美国关税加征对两轮车及四轮车影响分析

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry [2] Core Views - The impact of US tariff increases on two-wheeled motorcycles is limited, as China's exports to the US account for less than 3% of total exports, with most exports concentrated in the 250cc and below segment, where tariffs are below 10% [4] - The impact of tariff increases on four-wheeled vehicles is expected to be manageable, with historical tariff increases showing limited effects on companies like CFMOTO [5] - The US is the largest market for all-terrain vehicles (ATVs), with North America accounting for over 80% of global ATV sales [72] Trump 1.0 and 2.0 Tariff Overview - During Trump 1.0, the US imposed tariffs on Chinese goods in five batches, affecting motorcycles and ATVs in the first, second, and fourth batches [32] - Trump 2.0 may see faster implementation of tariffs, with potential increases of up to 60% on Chinese goods, though the actual increase may be lower than the campaign rhetoric [3][45] Two-Wheeled Motorcycle Tariffs - China's motorcycle exports to the US are concentrated in the 250cc and below segment, with tariffs below 10%, making the overall impact of tariff increases manageable [52] - The US motorcycle market is dominated by Harley-Davidson and Japanese brands, with Chinese brands having limited presence in the 600cc and above segment [58] Four-Wheeled Vehicle Tariffs - The US is the largest market for ATVs, with North America accounting for 80.5% of global sales in 2023 [72] - CFMOTO has mitigated tariff impacts by shifting some ATV production to Thailand and establishing a factory in Mexico, which began operations in August 2023 [75][88] - Historical tariff increases on ATVs and UTVs have had a limited impact on CFMOTO's profitability, with tariffs accounting for 5.5% of North American revenue in 2023 [76] Market Competition and Capacity Layout - Polaris and Bombardier dominate the North American ATV market, with both companies having significant production capacity in Mexico [79][88] - CFMOTO's new factory in Monterrey, Mexico, has a combined capacity of 100,000 units, which can cover ATV and UZ product exports to the US [88] Historical Tariff Impact on CFMOTO - From 2021 to 2023, CFMOTO's tariff expenses were 190 million, 320 million, and 260 million yuan, respectively, accounting for 8.1%, 6.4%, and 5.5% of North American revenue [76] - CFMOTO's North American gross margin recovered to 43.7% in 2023, close to pre-pandemic levels, indicating limited tariff impact [76]