MEITUAN(03690) 华兴证券·2024-12-05 03:42Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan with a target price raised to HK193.00, indicating a potential upside of 39% from the current price of HK$172.20 [2][3][10]. Core Insights - Meituan's 3Q24 performance showed stable and sustainable profit growth, with revenue and operating profit growth in the instant delivery segment outpacing order volume growth [6][10]. - The report highlights a healthy growth forecast for the dine-in and travel segments, with expected revenue and operating profit growth of 25% year-on-year in 4Q24 [7][10]. - The report emphasizes the improvement in profitability prospects for core local businesses, including food delivery and dine-in services, leading to a projected 23% year-on-year growth in operating profit for 2025 [10][18]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 336,900 million, with an expected year-on-year growth of 22% [11][17]. - Adjusted EPS for 2024 is forecasted to be RMB 7.47, reflecting a 15% increase from previous estimates [9][17]. - The adjusted net income for 2024 is expected to reach RMB 47,348 million, with a net profit margin of 14.1% [11][17]. Segment Performance - The instant delivery segment reported a 14.5% year-on-year increase in order volume, with management projecting that flash purchase orders could eventually capture 10% of the Chinese e-commerce market [8][10]. - The dine-in and travel segment saw a 50% increase in order volume in 3Q24, with revenue growth of 25% year-on-year [10][11]. - New business losses narrowed to RMB 10 billion in 3Q24, down from RMB 13 billion in 2Q24, indicating a trend towards improved profitability [10][11]. Valuation - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation approach, estimating the food delivery business at USD 78 billion and the dine-in and travel business at USD 49 billion, both based on a 15x P/E ratio for 2025 [18][20][22]. - The community e-commerce and local retail business is valued at USD 63 billion, using a 0.8x P/GMV multiple for 2025 [20][22].