银行业2025年度策略：关注股份行子板块的投资机会

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The banking sector is expected to perform well in 2025, but relative returns may not match those of the current year. As the economy transitions from a recession to a recovery phase, the banking sector typically shows strong performance, possessing both offensive and defensive attributes. However, relative returns may not be as outstanding as this year [4][10]. - The sub-sectors of joint-stock banks and city commercial banks are anticipated to perform better in 2025. Joint-stock banks are at a valuation, position, and performance bottom, with negative factors largely digested. Positive options are expected in the coming year, including potential stabilization and recovery in the economy, real estate, and consumption. City commercial banks will benefit from regional economic development, indicating structural opportunities [4][5]. - The performance of the banking sector in 2025 is expected to be slightly weaker than in 2024, with projected revenue growth of -1.5% and net profit growth of 1% [4]. Summary by Sections Market Review - Since 2021, the banking sector has outperformed the CSI 300 index for four consecutive years. Looking ahead, the relative returns of the banking sector may not be as pronounced as this year. If the economy stabilizes and recovers, the elasticity of bank stocks may be less than that of other sectors [10]. Investment Outlook - The focus is on the joint-stock bank sector, particularly on low-valuation, low-position banks with high option value, such as Ping An Bank, which is expected to lead the sector in breaking through valuation bottlenecks. Other recommended banks include China Merchants Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, and China Everbright Bank. The city commercial bank sector is also favored, with recommendations for Chongqing Bank and Jiangsu Bank, which has strong regional economic momentum and high performance stability [5]. Industry Fundamentals Outlook - It is anticipated that loan growth in 2025 will be slightly faster than in 2024 due to fiscal stimulus, large bank injections, and low base effects. Regions such as Sichuan, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang are expected to see strong loan growth [47][51]. Industry Views and Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of debt resolution, real estate risk digestion, and cyclical recovery. It highlights the need to focus on banks with high exposure to public real estate non-performing loans and those with strong cyclical recovery capabilities [23][28]. Financial Fundamentals - Quantity - The banking sector's net interest margin is expected to face downward pressure in 2025, with an estimated decline of 15 basis points, although the decline will be less than this year [61]. Financial Fundamentals - Quality - The report indicates that retail non-performing loans are a common issue across the industry, but public non-performing loans have shown varying degrees of improvement. Overall, the non-performing loan generation rate is expected to remain stable in 2024, with no systemic deterioration [81].