11月PMI数据点评：经济修复分化，等待12月政策接力

Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for November is 50.3%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating continued improvement[1] - The production index rose to 52.4%, up 0.4 percentage points, while the new orders index increased to 50.8%, up 0.8 percentage points[16] - The manufacturing sector's growth is driven by demand from equipment upgrades and replacement policies, with significant increases in production of agricultural machinery and consumer goods[2] Service Sector - The service sector PMI remains stable at 50.1%, showing no change from the previous month, but is weaker compared to historical averages[31] - New orders in the service sector decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 46.4%, indicating a decline in demand[31] - The business activity expectation index rose to 57.3%, suggesting improved confidence in future growth among service providers[32] Construction Sector - The construction PMI fell to 49.7%, marking the first drop below 50% since 2012, indicating contraction in the sector[36] - The decline in construction activity is attributed to seasonal factors and a decrease in the efficiency of infrastructure investment[36] - Year-to-date growth rates for broad and narrow infrastructure investments are 9.4% and 4.3%, respectively, indicating a divergence in investment efficiency[36] Economic Outlook - The upcoming December meetings are expected to outline policies for stabilizing economic growth, with a potential shift to counter-cyclical fiscal policies[4] - Expected incremental funding for 2024 is projected to reach 2%-2.5% of GDP, focusing on enhancing consumer demand and supporting the real estate sector[4] - Risks include underperformance in the real estate market, pressure on service consumption, and potential export risks due to tariffs[5]