国君2025年度策略|煤炭:不确定中寻找“确定性”

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook on the coal sector, emphasizing the stability of coal prices and the increasing profitability of leading companies [1] Core Views - The coal sector demonstrated resilience in 2024, with coal prices during off-seasons rising compared to 2023, reflecting a stable supply structure since 2016 and the impact of the "Coal Mine Safety Production Regulations" implemented on April 1 [1] - The sector's performance improved, with leading companies returning to positive growth in Q2 and increased mid-term dividends, reinforcing the dividend investment strategy [1] - For 2025, the report predicts a "steady state" for the industry, with coal prices expected to remain stable despite a slight weakening in marginal supply and demand [2] - Supply is projected to increase by approximately 70 million tons from Shanxi, but the actual impact on sales is expected to be less severe [2] - Demand for thermal coal is expected to grow by 2.5-3%, driven by a decline in contributions from hydropower and new energy, while non-thermal coal demand may decline but with a reduced marginal drag [2] - The coal market is expected to have a slight oversupply of 1.2% in 2025, compared to 0.9% in 2024, with coal prices likely to stabilize around 800 yuan/ton [2] Sector Analysis - The coal sector's supply-demand dynamics in 2024 were robust, with coal prices showing unexpected resilience despite downward pressure on downstream demand [1] - The sector benefited from a stable supply structure and increased electricity consumption, which is one of the most certain growth areas in the current macroeconomic environment [1] - In 2025, the sector is expected to maintain its stability, with coal prices having a clear floor and high certainty, making it a preferred choice for long-term investment [2] - Institutional holdings are at the lower end of the five-year median, reducing the risk of further declines, and the high-dividend logic remains attractive in a declining interest rate environment [2] - The sector's fundamentals are expected to remain among the most certain across all industries in 2025, even without policy stimulus [2]