Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Aikang Medical (1789 HK) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 6 8 [1][2] Core Views - Aikang Medical is positioned as a leading domestic orthopedic joint company with strong performance in the national joint procurement program The company is expected to see accelerated revenue growth in 2025 as the impact of industry anti-corruption measures subsides and joint procurement risks are cleared [1] - The company is a pioneer in applying metal 3D printing to orthopedic implants and is leveraging technologies such as 3D printing ICOS and surgical robots to build a digital orthopedic platform which will help expand its presence in the mid-to-high-end market [1] - The orthopedic industry is under short-term pressure due to anti-corruption measures but will benefit in the long term from a large patient base increasing surgical penetration rates and domestic substitution [1] - Aikang Medical's core products have cleared procurement risks and the company is expected to see improved earnings visibility in 2025 with revenue growth potentially accelerating on a lower base in 2024 [1] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of 22% from 2023 to 2026E with 2024E and 2025E revenue expected to reach RMB 1 305 million and RMB 1 625 million respectively [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 22 9% from 2023 to 2026E with 2024E and 2025E net profit expected to reach RMB 261 million and RMB 324 million respectively [3] - The company's PE ratio is expected to decline from 30 8x in 2023 to 17 5x in 2025E reflecting improved earnings growth [3] Industry Overview - The orthopedic industry continues to face short-term pressure from anti-corruption measures but is expected to recover in 2025 with revenue growth driven by a large patient base increasing surgical penetration rates and domestic substitution [16] - The industry saw a 3% YoY increase in revenue and a 1% YoY increase in net profit in 9M24 with signs of recovery in 1Q/2Q/3Q24 showing revenue growth of -9% +3% and +17% respectively [1] - Domestic substitution is expected to accelerate as foreign brands focus more on top-tier hospitals and reduce overall investment in China [1] Company-Specific Analysis - Aikang Medical's hip and knee joint products which contributed 85% of revenue in 1H24 performed well in the national joint procurement program with most products achieving price increases in the procurement [1] - The company is a leader in 3D printing technology for orthopedic implants and has developed the ICOS platform which offers customized solutions for patients and surgeons [2] - Aikang Medical has a dual-brand strategy in overseas markets with Aikang and JRI which provides a full product line advantage and potential for scale making international markets a key growth driver [2] Valuation and Target Price - The target price of HKD 6 8 is based on a 22x 2025E PE multiple in line with the company's historical average over the past three years [2] - The target price implies a 27% upside from the current price of HKD 5 4 [4]
爱康医疗：短期行业扰动不改长期成长逻辑，数字骨科+国际化打开发展空间