12 月流动性展望：12月资金中枢或难显著下降，但央行削峰填谷分层缓解

Group 1: Liquidity Outlook - The excess reserve ratio decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 1.3% in October, driven by a return of approximately CNY 1.2 trillion from other deposit-taking institutions[11] - Government deposits increased by CNY 881.9 billion in October, exceeding the growth of general fiscal surplus and net government debt financing by CNY 240 billion[11] - In November, the excess reserve ratio is expected to remain stable at around 1.3%, with a net liquidity withdrawal of CNY 1,894 billion through reverse repos[17] Group 2: Government Debt and Fiscal Policy - The net financing scale of government bonds in November reached CNY 1.83 trillion, an increase of CNY 907.7 billion compared to October, approaching historical highs[18] - Government deposits are projected to decrease by approximately CNY 400 billion in November, contributing to liquidity[23] - The issuance of special refinancing bonds in November amounted to CNY 10.85 trillion, indicating a significant increase in local government financing activities[22] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The central bank's MLF maturity in December is expected to reach CNY 1.45 trillion, with a net withdrawal of about CNY 5.5 billion anticipated[3] - The DR007 interest rate remained stable between 1.65% and 1.70% in November, reflecting a controlled liquidity environment despite fluctuations[29] - The necessity for a reserve requirement ratio cut has diminished, as the central bank's liquidity management appears effective in maintaining stability[5]