KELUN PHARMA(002422) 国联证券·2024-12-05 10:10Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Kelun Pharmaceutical (002422) for the first time [7] Core Views - Kelun Pharmaceutical has successfully diversified its strategy, leading in the domestic infusion market and expanding into APIs, generics, and innovative drugs [2] - The company has 154 generic drugs launched by H1 2024, with a strong presence in parenteral nutrition, bacterial infections, and fluid balance [2] - Kelun's innovative drug pipeline includes SKB264, a pan-cancer ADC drug developed in collaboration with Merck, with significant market potential both domestically and internationally [2] Business Overview Infusion Business - Kelun is a leading player in China's infusion market, with sales of approximately 4.38 billion bottles/bags in 2023 [11] - The company is driving industry upgrades through high-end infusion products like ready-to-mix solutions and collapsible bags [2] - Infusion capacity expansion and product innovation are expected to boost market share [15] API Business - Kelun ranks among the global leaders in the production of erythromycin thiocyanate, cephalosporin intermediates, and penicillin intermediates [2] - The company is a pioneer in synthetic biology in China, with products already in delivery [2] - API business revenue grew from CNY 3.65 billion in 2020 to CNY 4.82 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of 9.7% [115] Generic Drugs - By H1 2024, Kelun had launched 154 generic drugs, establishing advantages in parenteral nutrition, bacterial infections, and fluid balance [2] - The company has 47 products (67 specifications) selected in national centralized procurement, making it a leading supplier [105] Innovative Drugs - Kelun is collaborating with Merck on multiple innovative drug projects, including the pan-cancer ADC drug SKB264 [2] - The global ADC drug market is projected to grow from USD 14.2 billion in 2024 to USD 64.7 billion in 2030, with a CAGR of 28.8% [11] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from CNY 22.02 billion in 2024 to CNY 25.23 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 7.1% [16] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from CNY 2.96 billion in 2024 to CNY 3.89 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 14.7% [16] - EPS is forecasted to rise from CNY 1.85 in 2024 to CNY 2.43 in 2026 [16] Industry Analysis Infusion Market - China's infusion production reached approximately 10.5 billion bottles/bags in 2022, with Kelun being a major contributor [11] - The infusion market is expected to stabilize and recover, with Kelun well-positioned to benefit from capacity expansion and product upgrades [73] ADC Drug Market - The global ADC drug market is projected to grow significantly, driven by the combination of PD1/PDL1 inhibitors with ADC drugs [60] - Kelun's SKB264 has shown best-in-class potential in multiple indications, with broad market prospects [11] Centralized Procurement Impact - Centralized procurement has led to rapid volume growth for Kelun's generic drugs, with 47 products selected across nine batches [105] - The company's strategy of continuous new product approvals ensures stable revenue and profit growth in the generics segment [105]