证券行业2025年投资策略：经营环境转暖，盈利预期向上

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "In line with the market" for the securities industry [1][6]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the operating environment is improving, with profit expectations trending upwards due to a series of incremental policies aimed at bolstering the capital market's high-quality development [1][6][21]. - The securities industry is expected to enter a new upward cycle in 2025, with retail brokerage, directional equity proprietary trading, and margin financing being key drivers for improved overall performance [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Incremental Policies and Market Confidence - A series of incremental policies have been released, significantly enhancing market expectations and confidence, including interest rate cuts and new monetary policy tools to support stable capital market operations [21][24]. - The implementation of market capitalization management guidelines aims to improve investor returns and enhance the quality of listed companies [10][21]. 2. Industry Performance Review - In the first three quarters of 2024, the securities industry's operating performance showed a narrowing decline, with revenue down by 2.75% and net profit down by 5.93% [4][5]. - The report notes that the self-operated business has seen significant volatility, while brokerage, investment banking, and asset management revenues have not yet shown substantial improvement [4][5]. 3. 2025 Industry Outlook - The brokerage business is expected to recover to high levels of activity, while proprietary trading will determine the extent of overall industry performance recovery [5][6]. - The investment banking sector is anticipated to see marginal improvements, and while asset management faces downward pressure, its impact is expected to be limited [5][6]. 4. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the overall operating environment for the securities industry is likely to continue improving, with a potential for significant performance recovery after three consecutive years of decline [6]. - It recommends focusing on leading securities firms for valuation recovery, those that can quickly release performance elasticity in a recovering market, and those with valuations significantly below the sector average [6]. Key recommended companies include CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan, Huatai Securities, and others [6].