新材料行业年度策略：赋能制造业，把握国产替代和自主创新机会

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the new materials sector, indicating an expected increase of over 10% relative to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [216][231]. Core Insights - The new materials sector is expected to experience a phase of initial volatility followed by a rebound in 2024, with the new materials index rising by 7.96% as of December 3, 2024, compared to a 15.18% increase in the CSI 300, resulting in an underperformance of 7.22 percentage points [3][44]. - The semiconductor materials segment is anticipated to benefit from ongoing domestic substitution and a cyclical recovery, with demand expected to rise in 2025 [4][221]. - The report highlights the significant growth potential in the new materials industry, driven by the rapid development of emerging industries such as electronic information, new energy, aerospace, and biomedicine, which demand high-performance materials [68][69]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The new materials sector's performance has been under pressure, with a notable decline in revenue and profit margins in the first three quarters of 2024, where total revenue was 14,475.66 billion yuan, down 9.26% year-on-year, and net profit decreased by 45.14% to 764.96 billion yuan [62][63]. - The current valuation of the new materials index stands at a TTM P/E ratio of 26.73, significantly higher than the average A-share P/E of 15.18, indicating a relatively high market valuation [56][220]. 2. Market Outlook for 2025 - The new materials market is projected to reach a scale of 11 trillion yuan by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 10% [68]. - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to stimulate demand recovery in various sectors, including automotive and home appliances, contributing to the growth of the new materials industry [74][75]. 3. Focus Areas - Semiconductor Materials: The report emphasizes the importance of domestic semiconductor companies and the ongoing trend of domestic substitution, particularly in high-tech materials with low substitution rates [4][221]. - Superhard Materials: Despite traditional demand pressures, new applications in automotive and consumer electronics are expected to drive demand for high-end superhard products [4][99]. - Metal New Materials: The demand for titanium alloys and other advanced materials is increasing due to the upgrade cycle in consumer electronics, particularly foldable smartphones [5][142]. - Lubricant Additives: China's lubricant additive market is growing rapidly, with a CAGR of 6.02% from 2015 to 2022, as domestic manufacturers improve their competitive edge [171][173]. - Precious Metal Catalysts: The demand for precious metal catalysts is expected to rise due to the rapid development of fine chemicals and the need for high-performance catalysts in various industries [194][207]. 4. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on companies within the semiconductor materials sector that are well-positioned for domestic substitution and have a significant market share in specialized sub-segments [221]. - For superhard materials, attention is drawn to companies innovating in high-end applications, particularly in the automotive and aerospace sectors [221]. - The report also highlights the growth potential in the lubricant additives market, where domestic firms are expected to gain market share due to improved technology and production capabilities [221].