绿氨产业发展分析：合成氨产业绿色转型，火电减排前景可期

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the power equipment industry [7] Core Views - Green ammonia is emerging as a key solution for decarbonization in industries such as coal power and shipping, driven by its near-zero carbon emission production process [2][3] - The cost of green ammonia is expected to decrease significantly as green electricity prices drop, making it economically competitive with traditional ammonia production methods [2][3] - The global demand for green ammonia is projected to surge, particularly in coal power blending and shipping fuel applications, potentially exceeding current global ammonia consumption [3][4] Industry Overview - Ammonia is a critical global commodity with an annual consumption of approximately 1.8 billion tons, primarily used in fertilizer production and industrial applications [21][22] - Traditional ammonia production is highly energy-intensive and carbon-emitting, with 98% of global ammonia production relying on fossil fuels [22][23] - China is the largest ammonia producer globally, accounting for 30% of global production, but faces significant pressure to transition to greener production methods due to high carbon emissions [23][31] Green Ammonia Definition and Production - Green ammonia is produced using renewable energy to electrolyze water for hydrogen, which is then combined with nitrogen from air separation, resulting in near-zero carbon emissions [36][37] - The production cost of green ammonia is currently higher than traditional methods (4500-4600 RMB/ton), but is expected to drop to 2500-2600 RMB/ton as green electricity prices decrease [2][68] - Green ammonia production is divided into three main steps: hydrogen production via water electrolysis, nitrogen production via air separation, and ammonia synthesis using the Haber-Bosch process [62][66] Economic Analysis of Green Ammonia - The cost of green ammonia is heavily dependent on green electricity prices, with a potential reduction to 2500-2600 RMB/ton if electricity prices drop to 0.1 RMB/kWh [2][68] - Carbon markets and tariffs are expected to increase the cost of traditional ammonia, further enhancing the economic viability of green ammonia [73][74] - Green ammonia production costs are projected to decrease by over 40% in the future, making it competitive with traditional ammonia production [92] Applications of Green Ammonia Coal Power Blending - Blending 10% green ammonia in coal power plants can reduce carbon emissions by 10%, with the cost of electricity generation expected to align with traditional coal power as green ammonia costs decrease [3][84] - If 80% of China's coal power plants adopt 10% green ammonia blending, it could create a demand for 239 million tons of green ammonia, exceeding current global ammonia consumption [3][98] Shipping Fuel - Ammonia is considered a promising alternative fuel for shipping due to its zero carbon emissions and moderate storage conditions [103][106] - By 2050, ammonia is expected to account for 43% of the shipping fuel market, with a projected demand of 180 million tons [4][112] Hydrogen Storage and Energy Storage - Green ammonia is a viable medium for hydrogen storage and energy storage, with lower costs compared to liquid hydrogen [117][118] - The cost of hydrogen storage using ammonia is estimated at 10-14 RMB/kg, significantly lower than the 26-110 RMB/kg cost for liquid hydrogen storage [118][119] Chemical Feedstock - Ammonia is a fundamental chemical used in fertilizer production and industrial applications, with global demand expected to grow from 1.56 billion tons in 2020 to 2.67 billion tons by 2050 [125][126] - Green ammonia is expected to penetrate traditional markets and create new demand in energy applications, with a projected global demand of 688 million tons by 2050 [126][130] Green Ammonia Production and Policy Environment - Countries like Japan, South Korea, and Australia are actively promoting green ammonia through policy support and investment in research and development [134][135][136] - Japan aims to use 3 million tons of ammonia annually for power generation by 2030, increasing to 30 million tons by 2050 [135] - South Korea plans to commercialize ammonia-based power generation by 2030, targeting a 3.6% share in its power mix [136]