有色金属2025年年度策略：下游空间广阔，黄金持续看好，铜铝静待绽放

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the downstream space for non-ferrous metals is broad, with a continued positive outlook on gold, while copper and aluminum are expected to wait for favorable conditions to emerge [1] Summary by Sections 1. Domestic and International Policy Margins Widen, Driving Demand - China has implemented a series of macroeconomic policies aimed at stimulating economic growth, including expanding domestic demand and supporting enterprises [29][31] - The U.S. has entered a rate-cutting cycle, which is expected to increase dollar liquidity [32][33] 2. Downstream Technology and Processing to Benefit First - New productive forces are expected to lead to investment opportunities in emerging industries, particularly in low-altitude economy, AI, and humanoid robots [38] - The low-altitude economy is projected to grow significantly, with a market size expected to reach 1.5 trillion yuan by 2025 and 3.5 trillion yuan by 2035, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 8.84% [39][41] - AI is anticipated to experience rapid growth, with significant increases in computing power expected [60][65] 3. Precious Metals Likely to Rise - Gold prices are expected to trend upward, particularly as the Fed's rate-cutting cycle begins, supported by factors such as declining real interest rates and geopolitical instability [6] - Silver is projected to have stronger elasticity due to high gold-silver ratios and robust industrial demand [6] 4. Copper and Aluminum Supply Constraints, Demand Growth to Boost Prices - Copper and aluminum prices are expected to diverge, with aluminum prices likely to remain high due to supply constraints and increasing demand from the renewable energy sector [6] - The report notes that refined copper is in a state of supply-demand balance, with growth in demand driven by infrastructure projects and electric vehicles [6] 5. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies in new productive forces include Baowu Magnesium, Platinum New Materials, and others [7] - Processing companies recommended include Ming Tai Aluminum and Huada New Materials [7] - Precious metals recommendations include Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold [7] - For copper and aluminum, recommended companies include Nanshan Aluminum and Zijin Mining [7]