半导体：HBM加速迭代叠加美国限制出口，国产自主可控重要性日益凸显

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market (Maintain)" [2][7]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the accelerating iteration of HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) technology, emphasizing the increasing importance of domestic self-sufficiency in light of U.S. export restrictions [2]. - The global HBM market is projected to exceed $30 billion by 2025, with HBM accounting for approximately 15% to 20% of DRAM wafer capacity [2]. - The introduction of advanced technologies such as hybrid bonding in HBM4 is expected to enhance performance and energy efficiency [2]. - The report suggests that the strong demand driven by AI is propelling rapid growth in the HBM market, while continuous upgrades in HBM technology present new investment opportunities [2]. Summary by Sections HBM Market Dynamics - SK Hynix plans to adopt TSMC's 3nm process for HBM4 production, with the first prototypes expected by March 2025 [2]. - Samsung is also expected to provide HBM4 samples in the second half of 2025, with mass production planned for the 2026 fiscal year [2]. - By the end of 2024, the combined HBM capacity of Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron is projected to reach 300,000 wafers per month [2]. Technological Advancements - HBM4 will utilize TSMC's 3nm advanced logic process, marking a shift from previous DRAM-based bare chips [2]. - The report notes that the introduction of no-bump bonding technology is being actively pursued by major manufacturers to reduce DRAM stacking distances [2]. Regulatory Environment - Recent U.S. export controls on advanced HBM highlight the growing importance of domestic self-sufficiency in the HBM supply chain [2][4]. - Domestic manufacturers such as Wuhan Xinxin and Changxin Storage are in the early stages of HBM production, with significant capacity expansion plans [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies within the HBM supply chain, including packaging and testing firms like Tongfu Microelectronics and Jiangsu Changjiang Electronics Technology [4]. - Equipment manufacturers such as Tuojing Technology and Huahai Qingke are also highlighted as potential investment targets [4].