公用事业行业2025年投资策略：转型的“气”机

Investment Rating - The report rates the public utility industry as "Buy" [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the transformation keyword "gas" as a driving force, observing the shift towards cleaner energy structures and the increasing scarcity of resources. It predicts that the growth in electricity demand will continue to shift from the secondary industry to the tertiary industry, with a focus on the elasticity of electricity demand [1]. - The report anticipates a decline in natural gas prices, which will facilitate the substitution of gas for coal and promote gas consumption growth. It highlights the deepening of public utility reforms and the impact of global LNG production and transportation on the energy sector [1]. - The report suggests that the profitability of gas-fired power generation will improve due to increased operating hours and a favorable pricing environment, while also noting the potential for coal prices to decrease as gas prices fall [1]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Sustained Growth in Electricity Demand - The report discusses the upward shift in electricity elasticity coefficients driven by industrial transformation, indicating that electricity demand will continue to grow, supported by GDP growth [19]. - It highlights that the secondary industry has historically contributed over 60% to electricity consumption growth, with significant increases observed from 2016 to 2018 and again post-2018 due to a shift towards high-tech manufacturing [19][22]. Section 2: Natural Gas Consumption and Pricing - The report notes a recovery in natural gas consumption across urban and industrial sectors, with expectations for further growth in gas demand driven by price adjustments and increased consumption in urban gas [1]. - It emphasizes the importance of price adjustments for residential gas sales, which are expected to widen the price gap and enhance profitability for gas companies [1]. Section 3: Coal-Fired Power Generation - The report indicates that coal-fired power generation will continue to grow, with a focus on the dual demand for electricity generation and regulation, as the industry moves towards public utility models [1]. - It discusses the transformation of profitability from electricity generation to comprehensive profits per unit of installed capacity, highlighting the importance of regulatory adjustments and auxiliary service demand [1]. Section 4: Green Energy - The report anticipates a reversal of challenges faced by green energy, with expectations for policy progress to enhance profitability and asset quality in the sector [1]. - It notes that the expansion of green energy consumption and the implementation of carbon border taxes are likely to increase the environmental premium associated with green electricity [1]. Section 5: Hydropower and Nuclear Power - The report highlights the upcoming peak in hydropower and nuclear power production, with accelerated capital operations expected to catalyze investment interest [1]. - It discusses the advantages of high storage capacity and the anticipated increase in electricity generation, alongside a confirmed downward trend in costs [1].