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光刻机产业深度系列专题报告(一):“进制程关键步骤,半导体设备明珠,光刻机市场迎国产化机遇
国信证券·2024-12-06 06:40

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the semiconductor equipment industry, specifically focusing on lithography machines [2]. Core Insights - Lithography is a critical step in advanced semiconductor processes and is considered the cornerstone of the semiconductor industry. It is the most time-consuming and costly part of chip manufacturing, accounting for approximately one-third of the total manufacturing cost and 40%-60% of the total manufacturing time [2][25]. - The global lithography machine market is valued at over 100 billion RMB and is expected to maintain rapid growth, with a projected CAGR of 6% from 2022 to 2028 [2][22]. - ASML, Nikon, and Canon dominate the lithography machine market, holding over 99% of the market share, with ASML leading in high-end lithography machines [2][24]. Summary by Sections Lithography Technology Overview - Lithography is a photolithography technique that transfers circuit patterns onto wafers, crucial for integrated circuit manufacturing [21]. - The resolution of lithography directly impacts the minimum feature size of components and the integration density of chips, with advancements in light source wavelength and numerical aperture being key factors [30][31]. Market Size and Growth - The lithography machine market was valued at $25.7 billion in 2011, with a steady increase in shipments from 2019 to 2023, showing a CAGR of 16.75% [2][22]. - The average selling price (ASP) of EUV lithography machines has increased significantly from €100 million in 2018 to €170 million in 2023 [2]. Competitive Landscape - The lithography machine industry is characterized by an oligopolistic structure, with ASML holding a 63% shipment market share and an 81% revenue market share [2][24]. - ASML's R&D investment has reached €24.548 billion from 2006 to 2023, with an average R&D expense ratio of 15.5%, establishing a significant technological barrier in the high-end lithography machine sector [2][24]. Domestic Lithography Machine Opportunities - The demand for lithography machines is expected to rise due to the continuous expansion of domestic wafer foundries and the necessity for domestic production amid export restrictions from the US, Japan, and the Netherlands [2][30]. - Shanghai Micro Electronics is currently the only domestic manufacturer capable of producing lithography machines, with its 600 series capable of mass production of 90nm process chips [2][30]. Industry Chain and Related Companies - The lithography machine supply chain involves numerous components and suppliers, with companies like Maolai Optics, Fuzhong Technology, and Wavelength Optics playing significant roles in the industry [2][34].