Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the electric new public utility industry for 2025 [1] Core Insights - The electric new public utility industry is expected to continue its positive trend into 2025, with supply-side excess capacity in lithium batteries and photovoltaics gradually being cleared, and battery technology upgrades presenting new opportunities. Wind power and grid equipment are anticipated to benefit from domestic and international demand, fulfilling export orders. The ongoing deepening of electricity system reforms is also expected [13] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Review - As of November 29, 2024, the electric equipment sector achieved a growth rate of +9.66%, while the electric index grew by +13.13%. The cyclical Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by +14.15% [18][21] 2. Photovoltaics - Global photovoltaic installations are projected to reach 593 GW in 2024, with China contributing 334 GW, reflecting a year-on-year growth of +28.5%. However, this growth rate is slowing compared to 2023's +86.6% [27] - The supply side is expected to gradually clear excess capacity, with the industry likely to optimize under policy guidance. The report anticipates that by 2025, BC battery capacity will reach 100 GW, with further growth expected in subsequent years [38][34] 3. Wind Power - The offshore wind sector saw a significant increase in installations, with a 121.4% year-on-year growth in new offshore installations in the first three quarters of 2024. The report forecasts new grid-connected offshore wind capacity of 8 GW in 2024 and 12-15 GW in 2025 [40][41] - The average bidding price for onshore wind (excluding towers) was 1659 RMB/kW in November 2024, reflecting a month-on-month increase of +3.91% [46] 4. Grid Equipment - The construction of ultra-high voltage (UHV) projects is expected to accelerate to meet the demand for large-scale energy transmission. The report estimates that 20 UHV direct current projects will be reserved during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [64] - The global investment climate for grid equipment remains favorable, with significant increases in exports of transformers and electric meters [64] 5. Lithium Batteries - Global lithium battery demand is projected to reach 1531 GWh in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of +25%. The report indicates that prices for various components are beginning to rebound, suggesting a potential bottoming out of prices [11][12]
电新公用行业2025年度投资策略报告：新周期、新技术、新市场
CHINA DRAGON SECURITIES·2024-12-06 07:59