Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the steel industry [1] Core Insights - Supply expectations are tightening due to ongoing control of crude steel production and structural adjustments in steel products, with a target for over 80% of steel production capacity to achieve ultra-low emissions by 2025 [7][25] - Demand for steel is expected to stabilize, despite a slight decline in total domestic steel demand, with structural adjustments occurring as demand for long products used in real estate construction decreases while demand for flat products used in industrial manufacturing remains stable [7][43] - Cost factors indicate stable supply of iron ore, with new projects expected to increase capacity by 2025, while coking coal prices and utilization rates are declining, leading to a relaxed supply environment [7][81][92] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The steel industry has shown varied performance over 1 month, 3 months, and 12 months, with returns of 1.20%, 26.46%, and 0.50% respectively, compared to the CSI 300 index [2] 2. Supply Side - The industry is implementing strict energy efficiency standards, with a goal for 30% of production capacity to meet benchmark energy efficiency levels by 2025, and a reduction in crude steel production by 2.74% year-on-year as of October 2024 [25][34] - The overall capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces and electric arc furnaces has decreased, reflecting lower production advantages due to falling finished product prices [28] 3. Demand Side - Total steel demand has slightly decreased, with a notable decline in demand for long products and stable demand for flat products, particularly in manufacturing sectors such as shipbuilding, automotive, and home appliances [43][55][67] - Real estate policies are expected to stabilize demand for construction steel, with new construction area declining by 22.67% year-on-year as of October 2024 [48] 4. Cost Side - Iron ore supply remains stable, with a slight decrease in prices, while coking coal and coke prices have also seen declines, indicating a relaxed supply situation [81][92] - The establishment of a resource recycling platform is expected to enhance the utilization rate of scrap steel, with a target of reaching 300 million tons by 2025 [94] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with structural advantages and scale effects, such as Baosteel (600019.SH) and Nanjing Steel (600282.SH), as well as special steel companies with high barriers and added value [103][104]
钢铁行业2025年度投资策略报告：供给预期收缩，需求有望企稳
华龙证券·2024-12-06 08:00