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首席周观点：2024年第49周
Dongxing Securities·2024-12-06 08:05

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights that Chifeng Gold (600988.SH) has effectively advanced cost reduction and efficiency improvement, entering a new stage of stable performance optimization [1][2] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 6.223 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.93%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.105 billion yuan, up 112.59% year-on-year [1][3] - The company’s average sales cost of gold was 281.55 yuan/gram, significantly lower than the global average of 1388 USD/ounce, indicating strong cost control capabilities [2][3] Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue increase of 19.88% to 2.027 billion yuan and a profit increase of 89.83% to 395 million yuan [1][3] - The company’s sales expense decreased by 41.3% to 316,600 yuan, and the sales expense ratio dropped from 0.11% to 0.01% [3] - The net profit margin for the year was 20.15%, an increase of 8.1 percentage points compared to the previous year [3] Group 3: Production and Capacity - The company’s gold production from Q3 2021 to Q3 2024 grew at a CAGR of 20.8%, increasing from 6.09 tons to 10.75 tons, driven by enhanced domestic and overseas mining capabilities [4][6] - The company’s overseas mining operations have shown improved cost control, with average sales costs decreasing for its overseas mines [2][3] - The company expects its gold production to reach 15.96 tons, 17.42 tons, and 20.26 tons from 2024 to 2026, with a CAGR of 12.7% [6] Group 4: Market Outlook - The report indicates that the pricing of gold is shifting towards a commodity supply-demand model, with a structural tightening in supply, leading to a trend of rising prices [7] - The COMEX gold price increased by 32.2% year-to-date as of October 31, 2024, reaching 2734.15 USD/ounce [7] - The company is projected to benefit from a rising pricing center for gold, with expected revenues of 9.897 billion yuan, 11.299 billion yuan, and 13.689 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026 [7]