供需错配压力仍存，部分品种有改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry and oil and gas sectors [1][1]. Core Insights - The overall price spread in the chemical industry remains weak, with a marginal improvement in demand expected due to favorable policies in the real estate and consumption sectors [1][1]. - The report anticipates a potential recovery starting in 2025, driven by demand improvement and supply-side adjustments [1][1]. Demand Side Summary - The PMI for November remains above the neutral line at 50.30, indicating a slight recovery in chemical product demand [15][15]. - The cumulative year-on-year growth rates for new housing starts, completions, and sales have shown a reduction in decline, suggesting a potential stabilization in the real estate market [15][15]. Supply Side Summary - The fixed asset investment in the chemical raw materials and products industry has increased by 11.2% year-on-year for the first ten months of 2024, although the growth rate has slowed compared to previous years [24][24]. - The report notes that the overall price spread in the chemical industry has been at a relatively low level since the second half of 2022, primarily due to supply-demand imbalances and high oil prices [13][13]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on sectors that may recover first, such as amino acids and other products driven by new technologies and export opportunities [28][28]. - Recommended stocks include China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Juhua Co., Wanhua Chemical, and Xingshu Technology, all expected to benefit from improving demand and supply-side adjustments [28][28]. Monthly Price Movement Summary - In November, most chemical products did not see significant price improvements due to unfavorable supply-demand conditions, with notable exceptions like amino acids and refrigerants driven by strong pricing power from manufacturers [30][30].