国君2025年度策略|券商:改革进行时,业绩回暖期

Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests an "Overweight" rating for the industry, particularly favoring leading brokerages with stronger institutional and retail client investment services [4] Core Views - The industry experienced a year-on-year decline in net profit attributable to the parent company of listed brokerages by 5.93% in the first three quarters of 2024, but a significant quarter-on-quarter improvement of 14.09% in Q3 2024 [1] - The 924 New Policy has driven incremental funds into the market, leading to a marginal recovery in brokerages' proprietary trading businesses and contributing to the quarter-on-quarter profit improvement [2] - In 2025, capital market reforms are expected to take effect, boosting institutional clients' equity asset allocation and benefiting leading brokerages with stronger comprehensive service capabilities [3] - Retail business is anticipated to grow due to increased demand for equity asset allocation among residents, with ETFs and online customer acquisition expected to contribute to incremental growth [3] - The adjusted revenue of listed brokerages is projected to increase by 9.37% year-on-year in 2025, with net profit attributable to the parent company expected to rise by 12.48% [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends increasing holdings in leading brokerages that have advantages in institutional and retail client investment services [4] - Brokerages with potential to enhance institutional service capabilities through mergers and acquisitions, as well as those with competitive advantages in retail services and financial technology, are also recommended [4]