氟化工行业2024年11月月度观察：年末空调排产双位数增长，R125、R134a价格进一步上涨

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the fluorochemical industry [2][8]. Core Insights - The fluorochemical industry index outperformed major indices in November, with a 1.89% increase, indicating strong market performance [2][29]. - The report highlights a significant increase in air conditioning production and sales, driven by favorable government policies and market demand, particularly in emerging markets [6][43]. - The 2025 refrigerant quota plan is expected to tighten supply, particularly for R22 and R32, which will support price increases for these refrigerants [6][17]. Summary by Sections 1. November Fluorochemical Industry Performance - As of November 29, the fluorochemical index rose to 1331.57 points, outperforming the chemical index by 0.17 percentage points [2][29]. - The overall market sentiment is positive, with key refrigerants like R22, R32, and R134a showing price increases due to supply constraints and rising demand [42][43]. 2. Refrigerant Market Review - The report notes that R22 is priced between 31,000-32,000 CNY/ton, while R125 and R134a are around 39,000-40,000 CNY/ton [42]. - The demand for R32 is increasing, with retail prices rising to 42,000 CNY/ton, reflecting strong sales in the air conditioning sector [42][43]. 3. 2025 Refrigerant Quota Plan - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has announced a significant reduction in production quotas for second-generation refrigerants, with R22 quotas cut by 28% [6][17]. - The report anticipates that the tightening of quotas will lead to sustained demand and price increases for R22 and R32, benefiting leading companies in the sector [6][17]. 4. Air Conditioning Production and Export Data - In October 2024, China's air conditioning production reached 16.2 million units, a year-on-year increase of 18% [6][43]. - The report highlights a robust export market, with air conditioning exports projected to grow by 48.5% in December 2024 [5][43]. 5. Key Companies and Profitability Forecast - The report identifies key companies such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Haohua Technology, and Jinshi Resources as potential beneficiaries of the favorable market conditions [6][8]. - Profitability forecasts for these companies remain strong, with expected earnings per share (EPS) growth in the coming years [8].