银行业2025年展望：新共识下的价值重估

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking industry [3] Core Insights - A package of stable growth policies is expected to improve the fundamentals of banks, leading to a revaluation of their value under a new consensus by 2025 [2][3] - The macro fiscal policy space is opening up, and if the effects of these policies exceed expectations, it may initiate a cyclical recovery in the economic fundamentals [2] - The narrowing of the China-US interest rate spread is expected to ease constraints on interest rate declines, leading to a stabilization of net interest margins [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying alpha pricing logic, particularly in county-level economic development and the recovery of wealth management demand [4] Market Review - The banking index rose by 37.53% in 2024, outperforming the CSI 300 by 21.46%, ranking first among Wind industry indices [17] - The banking sector's performance was driven by a combination of market sentiment, policy stimuli, and improvements in asset quality [17] Fundamental Review - The report highlights a rebalancing of volume, price, and risk in the banking sector, with a focus on the improvement of asset quality in real estate and local government financing [28] - The report notes that the return on equity (ROE) for listed banks decreased by 0.14 percentage points compared to the end of 2023, which is weaker than the overall A-share market [28] Future Outlook - The investment strategy for 2025 focuses on identifying banks that can benefit from county-level economic growth and the recovery of wealth management demand [4] - The report suggests that banks with strong wealth management capabilities, such as China Merchants Bank and Ningbo Bank, are likely to benefit from the anticipated recovery in resident investment demand [4] Performance of Listed Banks - The report indicates that the revenue and net profit growth rates for listed banks in the first three quarters of 2024 were -1.05% and +1.49%, respectively, with city commercial banks showing the strongest performance [52] - The report also highlights that the PPOP (pre-provision operating profit) growth rate for city commercial banks was the highest among all bank types [53]